Overseas voters could swing a tight election

The number of New Zealanders enrolled to vote from overseas has jumped sharply ahead of the general election on 7 November. The Electoral Commission's latest data shows 104,164 offshore enrolments, up 60% on the same point in the 2023 cycle. The commission says it is the highest number it has seen in recent elections.

That matters because polls point to one of the tightest contests in years. The latest 1News Verian poll has the two major parties on 28% each and the Greens on 16%, their highest ever result in that poll. In a race that close, analysts say a fraction of a percentage point could decide who governs.

Stats NZ estimates about one million New Zealanders live overseas. Most enrolled voters abroad will not be counted until after election night, because their ballots are part of the special vote count.

The record

Tracey Lee, who runs Every Kiwi Vote Counts, a non-partisan campaign to encourage overseas voting, says some people at home still believe those who left have no say in New Zealand's future.

Overseas votes sit inside the wider group of special votes. Political scientist Lara Greaves of Victoria University of Wellington says special votes typically favour left-leaning minor parties. In 2023, special votes delivered Te Pāti Māori and the Greens three seats between them.

The outward flow is also large. New Zealand has seen record departures of its citizens to Australia, many leaving a weak labour market, a sluggish economy and high living costs. About 74,000 have moved there since the 2023 election, joining roughly 600,000 New Zealanders already living in Australia. The coalition government has been in office since that election.

Under MMP, parties that clear the 5% threshold enter Parliament. If neither major party can assemble a governing bloc, minor parties can become kingmakers. That is why a vote block that leans towards them draws attention.

In a first for the country, leaders of the prominent parties will speak directly to offshore New Zealanders in a virtual town hall next month.

Open questions

Is the assumption that overseas voters lean left actually safe? Greaves calls it the conventional wisdom and says she can see the case for it this time, but she frames it as a guess. Past special votes are one thing. A block that has grown 60% in one cycle is a different group, and it has not been tested at an election yet.

Do enrolments turn into votes? The rise in enrolments is measurable. Whether those people return ballots in time, and in what numbers, will only be known once counting finishes.

The voices also do not all point one way. Kris Taute, a Māori man who has lived in Australia for 15 years, says he is worried about poverty and inequality and about what he sees as the removal of Māori rights. Akhil Donthireddy, 29, moved to Melbourne last year after struggling to find work and plans to vote Green. Most people interviewed said they wanted change, but a handful of conversations is not a survey.

There is also a harder question of principle. Should people who no longer live with the consequences of a government's decisions have an equal say? Supporters answer that many still have family, property and plans to return. Critics of that view might say those who stay carry the day-to-day results. Both arguments deserve a hearing.

The other side

The case for overseas voters is straightforward. Lee says many left because leaving seemed the only option for finding work and experience, and that they would love to come home. She says voting is how they help make a country they can return to. She argues democracy only works if everyone takes part, and that the "mega-electorate" abroad should no longer be ignored.

Voters describe it in personal terms. Joseph Nunweek, a Melbourne lawyer who has lived in Australia since 2014 and thinks a return to New Zealand is likely, says he feels responsible for backing policies that affect his family and community, particularly in healthcare, renewable energy and foreign policy.

Greaves also raises the risk that some who left may feel spite towards the government. That is her reading of the mood, not a measured finding. The government's supporters could fairly say that people leave a country for many reasons, including global economic conditions and lifestyle, and that a departing voter's view of the government is not the only story.

What happens next

Election day is 7 November. The party leaders' virtual town hall for offshore New Zealanders takes place next month, and it will show how seriously parties take a group they have often overlooked.

Watch the special vote count once election night results settle. In 2023, those late votes changed seat numbers for two parties. If the race stays as tight as the polls suggest, the final count, and the overseas votes inside it, could matter more than usual to who forms the next government.